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Please don’t send my daddy to jail?

It must be heartbreaking for a child to see a parent go to jail for some crime. But is it necessarily all bad for how the kid’s life turns out in the long run?

Not according to a paper in the latest American Economic Review  by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver, “The Effects of Parental and Sibling . . .

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August 31, 2021

How Not to Argue about Cause and Effect

“If you spend a little time with CDC’s interactive maps, the conclusion seems blindingly obvious: measures taken by the states to “fight” the Wuhan virus, something that was never deemed possible before last year, imposed enormous costs but have made little or no difference in the end. The smart states were the ones . . .

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May 29, 2021

The Mystery of the Lockdowns

Silvrback blog imageIn “How many lives would a more normal president have saved?” New York Times columnist Ross Douthat wonders how many Americans died because of President Trump’s “abnormal” reluctance to embrace stricter lockdown measures. Douthat’s speculations never get close to the likely correct answer, though, which is . . .

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September 12, 2020

The Chinese Emperor's New Economic Clothes

All economic data contain errors, but China’s are a work of art. Like its numbers on COVID-19 infections and deaths, its official economic statistics are political artifacts, carefully devised to cloak the failings and trumpet the superiority of China’s one-party Silvrback blog imagepolitical capitalist system over our liberal-democratic . . .

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April 24, 2020

“19 Things We Learned from the 2016 Election” – I am scared

Silvrback blog imageStatistician Andrew Gelman and political scientist Julia Azari have an interesting discussion paper on “19 Things We Learned from the 2016 Election”.  The 19 things are grouped under Nominations and Campaigning, Polling and the News Media, How Voters Make Decisions, and The US Political Environment.  Here are a few that . . .

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December 25, 2017

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